Speculative Futures

Speculative, adjective

1. Engaged in, expressing, or based on conjecture rather than knowledge
2. Theoretical rather than demonstrable

Future, noun

1. The time or circumstances that will come after the present
2. A prospect of success or wealth

Understanding Speculative Futures

Speculative futures emerged from the intersection of design practice, science fiction, and critical theory. Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby's "Speculative Everything" (2013) established this approach as a way to use design not just to solve problems, but to imagine possible worlds and probe their implications. Unlike traditional forecasting, speculative futures emphasizes the creation of provocative scenarios that challenge assumptions about technology, society, and human behavior.

Theoretical Framework

Critical Design

Speculative futures builds on critical design practices that question the role of design in society. Rather than accepting current trajectories as inevitable, it proposes what Bruce Sterling calls "design fiction" - the creation of artifacts and scenarios that embody different possible futures. These speculations serve not just as predictions but as tools for examining present choices and their long-term implications.

Temporal Scales

Stuart Candy's "The Futures Cone" model outlines different types of futures:

• Probable futures: What is likely to happen
• Plausible futures: What could happen
• Possible futures: What might happen
• Preferable futures: What we want to happen

This framework helps designers and researchers explore the full spectrum of future possibilities while maintaining connections to present reality.

Methodological Approaches

World Building

Creating speculative futures involves what Alex McDowell terms "world building" - the systematic development of coherent future scenarios. This process considers:

• Social structures and relationships
• Technological systems and their effects
• Environmental conditions and constraints
• Cultural practices and values
• Economic systems and resource distribution

Material Speculation

As described by James Auger, speculative design often manifests through physical artifacts that embody future possibilities. These "diegetic prototypes" serve as tangible entry points into speculative worlds, making abstract futures concrete enough to examine and discuss.

Contemporary Practice

Modern speculative futures practice extends beyond traditional design fields. Companies use it for strategic foresight, researchers employ it to explore technological implications, and activists leverage it to imagine alternative social arrangements. Julian Bleecker's work at the Near Future Laboratory demonstrates how speculative approaches can inform practical innovation while maintaining critical perspective.

The practice has evolved to address pressing contemporary issues:

• Climate change and environmental futures
• Artificial intelligence and automation
• Social justice and equality
• Human-technology relationships
• Planetary-scale systems

Further Reading

• Dunne, A., & Raby, F. (2013). Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, and Social Dreaming. MIT Press.
• Sterling, B. (2009). Design Fiction. Interactions, 16(3), 20-24.
• Candy, S., & Kornet, K. (2019). Turning Foresight Inside Out: An Introduction to Ethnographic Experiential Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 23(3), 3-22.
• Bleecker, J. (2009). Design Fiction: A Short Essay on Design, Science, Fact and Fiction. Near Future Laboratory.
• Auger, J. (2013). Speculative Design: Crafting the Speculation. Digital Creativity, 24(1), 11-35.

Related Concepts

• Design Fiction
• Critical Design
• Future Studies
• Strategic Foresight
• World Building
• Scenario Planning
• Experiential Futures